John Beckett's Real Estate Blog

The foreclosure crisis hit a new peak in the first quarter, as banks took back the largest number of properties to date. The number of homes entering REO status (short for “real estate owned” by a bank) climbed 35% to 257,944 — the highest quarterly total ever — from 190,543 in the first quarter of last year and 9% from the previous quarter. The increase comes as lenders seized more property that couldn’t qualify under the Obama administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). “There have been delays throughout the system, and it has taken longer for properties to go from delinquency to default,” says Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac. Once rejected for HAMP, however, these properties are now moving to foreclosure at an accelerated pace, Sharga says.

More properties moving through pipeline

Foreclosure filings — from notices of default to bank repossessions — were reported on 932,234 homes in the first quarter of this year, a 16% increase from the same period last year and a 7% jump from the previous quarter. And the pace accelerated near the end of the quarter, with foreclosure filings reported on 367,056 properties in March, an increase of 19% from the previous month and the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in January 2005. Foreclosure auctions were scheduled on 369,491 properties during the quarter, the highest quarterly total since RealtyTrac began compiling its report. “There have not been a lot of households that have been successful under HAMP,” says Gary Painter, director of research at the University of Southern California’s Lusk Center for Real Estate. “It’s likely that many of the people who could be helped have been helped.” The good news is there doesn’t appear to be a huge wave of properties entering default.  In the first quarter, 304,799 properties received default notices, an increase of just 1% from the previous quarter and a decrease of 1% from the same time last year. Default notices have dropped 11% from their peak in last year’s third quarter.

Troubled states

Nevada continued to have the highest foreclosure rate in the quarter — four times the national average — with one in every 33 households receiving a foreclosure filing, followed by Arizona, Florida, California and states where employment has plummeted, such as Utah, Michigan, Georgia, Idaho and Illinois. Foreclosure filings were reported on 34,557 properties in Nevada during the first quarter, a 15% increase from the previous quarter but a 16% drop from the first quarter of 2009. Foreclosure filings in Arizona were reported on 55,686 properties — one in every 49 households — a 22% increase from the previous quarter and a 13% increase from the same time last year. Florida posted the third-highest foreclosure rate, with filings recorded on 153,540 properties — one in every 57 households — a 7% increase from the fourth quarter and a 29% increase from the same time last year.

Sitting on delinquencies

Just how many foreclosures move through the foreclosure process and when banks sell them will be key factors in how much more real-estate prices could fall before they recover. Most of these bank-owned properties are not making it onto multiple listing services, analysts and brokers say, despite banks having more of them to contend with. “We have about 860,000 REOs in our database, and only about 30% of them are available for sale on the MLS,” Sharga says. “That means you have another 550,000 to 600,000 that have yet to hit the market.” By keeping this “shadow inventory” off the market, banks are keeping prices unnaturally high in this soft economy, says Leo Nordine, a Los Angeles-area broker specializing in REO properties. “[Lenders] want to keep postponing them for as long as they can,” Nordine says. “Prices have stabilized” in many areas because banks have kept these properties off the market, he says, adding that banks will likely continue to do so until the economy picks up again.

A long, painful recovery

Meanwhile, foreclosure prevention efforts don’t appear to be helping a significant number of borrowers. While 1.4 million homeowners were offered trial modifications under HAMP through the end of March, just 230,000 homeowners had their modifications made permanent. That’s a drop in the bucket compared with the 5.5 million delinquent loans Sharga says are on the books. Acknowledging this poor progress, the government revamped HAMP last month to provide additional mortgage assistance for unemployed job seekers, increase payments to second-lien holders and give some underwater homeowners the chance to refinance into loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration. This could slow the number of homes entering foreclosure, but it probably won’t make a huge dent in the number of properties being taken back by the banks. “Many people are so far upside down [in their home’s value] they are not even eligible,” says Helene Raynaud, vice president of housing for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. And since HAMP is voluntary, lenders and investors are still deciding which properties they want to take back. “The government is really trying, but there are some issues of accountability and enforcement with servicers.” And, Raynaud says, there are some questions about how many of these modifications will end in redefault, given borrowers’ still-high levels of debt. Very few servicers are requiring these borrowers to get debt counseling, she says. Given these factors, economists expect a steady stream of foreclosures to hit the market for the next several years. But they don’t think it will derail a recovery. “I think we are very close to a recovering housing market,” says Celia Chen, senior director in charge of housing at Moody’s Economy.com. “We expect a slight decline and then flat prices until 2011.” However, Painter says you might want to brace yourself for a bit of a bumpy ride. “I think we are going to see upticks and downticks as the process happens,” he says. “But generally we are going to be stuck in place for a while.”

Read at: http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=23875844