The focus of the U.S. real-estate market lately has been the number of foreclosures and people trying to purchase cheap housing. But Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, says that if Americans don’t start focusing on building new houses, the market will have a much bigger problem on its hands. “We need one and a half million houses per year just to keep up with population growth,” Wesbury said in an interview with Steve Forbes. “And then if you throw in, you know, fires and tear-downs and just worn-out properties, we need 1.6 million or more per year. Right now, we’re down to about six and a half, seven months’ inventory whether you look at new homes or existing homes.” Privately owned housing starts in December 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 557,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4% less than where it was in November, which had 580,000 housing starts. Housing completion numbers also contribute to this dire picture, with privately owned housing completions reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 768,000 in December 2009. That was down 11.2% from the 865,000 completions in November and down 25.3% from the 1.03 million completions in December 2008. Some people might shrug these statistics off, considering the number of foreclosures on the market. “Yes there’s foreclosures coming into the market, but we’re only starting right now,” Wesbury says. “… We’re starting one-third of the houses we need just to keep up with population growth, and that can’t last.” There were 315,716 properties last month with foreclosure filings, according to RealtyTrac. These filings include default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions. Though last month’s filings were 15% more than a year ago, they were 10% less than in December. Jason Thomas, chief investment officer for Aspiriant, a California wealth-management firm, says he doesn’t see the foreclosure situation getting better until the labor market picks up. “So many people are getting to a point where they just can’t hold on anymore, and we may see another wave of that if we don’t see a pretty robust turnaround in the labor market,” he says. The unemployment rate is currently 9.7%, down from 10% at the end of 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Thesis Fund Management portfolio manager Stephen Roseman says the likelihood of a housing shortage is slim to none. “You need to have an accurate housing turnover number, and right now we have anything but that,” he says. There is some demand, though, from companies that are scooping up whole floors or housing developments because they have the cash on hand, Roseman says. And for those people who can get a mortgage, homes are very affordable. The median price for U.S. existing single-family homes in metropolitan areas was $173,200 in 2009, according to the National Association of Realtors, compared with $198,100 in 2008. Mortgage rates are also very low. For instance, both JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo are offering 30-year fixed mortgages at 5%, and some can be found for a hair less. “A mortgage is not difficult to get if you have the right income stream,” says Margaret Starner, senior vice president for the financial services firm Raymond James. But even if you can get a mortgage, maintaining the income to pay for that mortgage isn’t easy. “There’s a lot of potential problems that can come out if unemployment continues to drag; people deplete their savings and their credit card,” says Michael Ervolini, head of behavioral finance at Cabot Research. “It appears to be more of an income issue than a housing issue that we’re going to be looking at for the next couple of years.”

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